Post by Okwes on Jan 28, 2006 21:10:40 GMT -5
Canada Hangs Itself -- Once Again
John Horvath 28.01.2006
www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/21/21874/1.html
Although Canadian conservatives rejoice at taking control as a minority government, it's a bittersweet victory as history shows that minority governments don't last too long in the Great White North
After thirteen years in opposition, Canadian conservatives finally have something to smile about. Monday's election saw them finally returned to power as a minority government. However, it's a bittersweet victory at best, and there is not much hope it will last. History has shown that minority governments don't last too long in Canada. But even more important than this, the election highlighted just how unfair Canada's electoral system really is.
Unlike most countries in Europe and elsewhere in the world, Canada has a system known as a "First Past the Post" (FPP). Under this system, a candidate who receives the most votes in an electoral district (or "riding") wins a seat in parliament. Subsequently, the party with the most seats in parliament gets to form the government.
This rather simplistic formula may have been useful when life was a lot simpler: populations were smaller, and there were no computers around to make all sorts of calculations. Moreover, the number of parties were usually limited to just two or three, usually a split amongst conservatives and liberals.
As politics became more complex and the voter base expanded somewhat, not only due to an increase in population but also with the right of women to vote, it became clear in many countries that a change in the way votes were counted was needed. However, in some countries such as Canada, tradition prevailed and the old way of electing governments to power remained. As a result, Canada's electoral system not only looks increasingly antiquated, but is quite unfair as it favours the old, well-established parties over the younger, more dynamic ones.
This latest election provides a case in point. Although the Conservatives won the election by capturing 129 seats out a 308 seat parliament, their share of the popular vote stands at only 36 percent. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP), often referred to as Canada's "socialist party", won only 29 seats yet secured 17.5% percent of the popular vote. In other words, although the NDP were able to get about half the popular vote as the Conservatives, they ended up with only a quarter of the seats. Likewise, the Green party failed to win a seat in parliament even though they were able to pull in 4.5% of the popular vote.
Although a barrier of 5% of the popular vote in order to enter parliament is usually the norm in countries which use representative voting, parties which come close to crossing this barrier still feel victorious nonetheless. It gives them a new impetus, for after coming so close they are already looking forward to the next election when they plan (and hope) to be able to cross the barrier. Thus, under a representative voting system Canada's Green party's results would seem to be quite decent, especially considering that it's a relatively new face in national elections; under the present system, however, they simply failed to win a seat.
A delicate balance of power
Apart from shutting out smaller, alternative parties from parliament, a FPP electoral system also seems to nurture a peculiar type of mindset, in where political parties are much more insular and less likely to co-operate with one another. Hence, the concept of a "coalition government" is noticeably absent. For this reason, a political party which fails to capture a majority of seats in parliament (in the case of Canada, the magic number is 155) is then left with little choice but to form a minority government, one which can fall at any moment if a vote of no confidence is ever called.
In Canada, minority governments have a tendency to fall within one or two years. Indeed, this latest election came about because the Liberal minority government of Paul Martin was unable to hold on to the reins of power. As for the Conservatives, they shouldn't laugh too loud; their last minority government lasted only 9 months.
What makes this latest election especially ominous is that the distribution of seats is more or less evenly split. In other words, Canada has a de-facto hung parliamnt. The NDP has said it would try to work with the Conservatives; this is highly unlikely, but even with NDP support the Conservatives don't have enough seats over their rivals, the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois.
To really appreciate this delicate balance of power, one has to understand the political map of Canada: the west is predominantly Conservative; the Central and Eastern parts mainly Liberal. The Bloc Quebecois represent the French-speaking voters of Quebec, while the NDP has its support spread throughout the country. The Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois can get along together if need be, and both parties together control exactly half the seats in parliament. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois are rivals, to say the least. There is also no love lost between the Liberals and the Conservatives, the two major parties in Canada who have wielded power in the country since confederation.
What will most likely drive Canadians to early elections in about one or two years is not only these ingrained divisions but the structure of the new Conservative party itself, including the personality of its leader, Stephen Harper. Harper is the type of narrow-minded conservative which has given the US the likes of George W. Bush. Apart from his political and economic views, Harper also seems to share the same sort of ignorance of the world as his counterpart to the south. For example, two years ago during India's Independence Day he sent his heartfelt congratulations to the leaders of Canada's native people. Obviously, he wasn't aware that an Indian from India is not the same as a Canadian Indian (i.e., Native American, also known as First Nations). Given this, how he will be able to handle the myriad issues surrounding French Canadians in Quebec is not at all certain.
Ironically, the future of Canada's new minority government will depend not so much on the Conservatives and their policies, but on the ability of the Liberal party to rebuild itself in the wake of their defeat. Much of their loss was due to the scandals incurred by the old guard, which the former leader Paul Martin represented. If the party will be able to renew itself, with a younger generation untainted by the scandals of the past, then we can expect to see the Conservatives quickly lose their hold on power. If so, Canada will soon go to the polls in an another election which will once again fail to adequately represent the true wishes of voters.
John Horvath 28.01.2006
www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/21/21874/1.html
Although Canadian conservatives rejoice at taking control as a minority government, it's a bittersweet victory as history shows that minority governments don't last too long in the Great White North
After thirteen years in opposition, Canadian conservatives finally have something to smile about. Monday's election saw them finally returned to power as a minority government. However, it's a bittersweet victory at best, and there is not much hope it will last. History has shown that minority governments don't last too long in Canada. But even more important than this, the election highlighted just how unfair Canada's electoral system really is.
Unlike most countries in Europe and elsewhere in the world, Canada has a system known as a "First Past the Post" (FPP). Under this system, a candidate who receives the most votes in an electoral district (or "riding") wins a seat in parliament. Subsequently, the party with the most seats in parliament gets to form the government.
This rather simplistic formula may have been useful when life was a lot simpler: populations were smaller, and there were no computers around to make all sorts of calculations. Moreover, the number of parties were usually limited to just two or three, usually a split amongst conservatives and liberals.
As politics became more complex and the voter base expanded somewhat, not only due to an increase in population but also with the right of women to vote, it became clear in many countries that a change in the way votes were counted was needed. However, in some countries such as Canada, tradition prevailed and the old way of electing governments to power remained. As a result, Canada's electoral system not only looks increasingly antiquated, but is quite unfair as it favours the old, well-established parties over the younger, more dynamic ones.
This latest election provides a case in point. Although the Conservatives won the election by capturing 129 seats out a 308 seat parliament, their share of the popular vote stands at only 36 percent. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP), often referred to as Canada's "socialist party", won only 29 seats yet secured 17.5% percent of the popular vote. In other words, although the NDP were able to get about half the popular vote as the Conservatives, they ended up with only a quarter of the seats. Likewise, the Green party failed to win a seat in parliament even though they were able to pull in 4.5% of the popular vote.
Although a barrier of 5% of the popular vote in order to enter parliament is usually the norm in countries which use representative voting, parties which come close to crossing this barrier still feel victorious nonetheless. It gives them a new impetus, for after coming so close they are already looking forward to the next election when they plan (and hope) to be able to cross the barrier. Thus, under a representative voting system Canada's Green party's results would seem to be quite decent, especially considering that it's a relatively new face in national elections; under the present system, however, they simply failed to win a seat.
A delicate balance of power
Apart from shutting out smaller, alternative parties from parliament, a FPP electoral system also seems to nurture a peculiar type of mindset, in where political parties are much more insular and less likely to co-operate with one another. Hence, the concept of a "coalition government" is noticeably absent. For this reason, a political party which fails to capture a majority of seats in parliament (in the case of Canada, the magic number is 155) is then left with little choice but to form a minority government, one which can fall at any moment if a vote of no confidence is ever called.
In Canada, minority governments have a tendency to fall within one or two years. Indeed, this latest election came about because the Liberal minority government of Paul Martin was unable to hold on to the reins of power. As for the Conservatives, they shouldn't laugh too loud; their last minority government lasted only 9 months.
What makes this latest election especially ominous is that the distribution of seats is more or less evenly split. In other words, Canada has a de-facto hung parliamnt. The NDP has said it would try to work with the Conservatives; this is highly unlikely, but even with NDP support the Conservatives don't have enough seats over their rivals, the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois.
To really appreciate this delicate balance of power, one has to understand the political map of Canada: the west is predominantly Conservative; the Central and Eastern parts mainly Liberal. The Bloc Quebecois represent the French-speaking voters of Quebec, while the NDP has its support spread throughout the country. The Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois can get along together if need be, and both parties together control exactly half the seats in parliament. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois are rivals, to say the least. There is also no love lost between the Liberals and the Conservatives, the two major parties in Canada who have wielded power in the country since confederation.
What will most likely drive Canadians to early elections in about one or two years is not only these ingrained divisions but the structure of the new Conservative party itself, including the personality of its leader, Stephen Harper. Harper is the type of narrow-minded conservative which has given the US the likes of George W. Bush. Apart from his political and economic views, Harper also seems to share the same sort of ignorance of the world as his counterpart to the south. For example, two years ago during India's Independence Day he sent his heartfelt congratulations to the leaders of Canada's native people. Obviously, he wasn't aware that an Indian from India is not the same as a Canadian Indian (i.e., Native American, also known as First Nations). Given this, how he will be able to handle the myriad issues surrounding French Canadians in Quebec is not at all certain.
Ironically, the future of Canada's new minority government will depend not so much on the Conservatives and their policies, but on the ability of the Liberal party to rebuild itself in the wake of their defeat. Much of their loss was due to the scandals incurred by the old guard, which the former leader Paul Martin represented. If the party will be able to renew itself, with a younger generation untainted by the scandals of the past, then we can expect to see the Conservatives quickly lose their hold on power. If so, Canada will soon go to the polls in an another election which will once again fail to adequately represent the true wishes of voters.